Diplomatic pragmatism, political fears behind USA’s contacts with Belarus, lack thereof with EuropeThe cautious but promising revival of contacts between Minsk and Washington has become an event that is being closely watched on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. This low-key dialogue — quiet, without public declarations and with an emphasis on mutual restraint — attracts attention not with headlines, but with the results that instantly become practical decisions. You will not read about these negotiations in media like Truth Social, but their results immediately spread around the world in news reports, interviews, and analytical commentaries. This is how real politics and diplomacy work: without unnecessary noise and over-the-top enthusiasm, but with tangible practical effects for all sides. This raises the question: why is the United States of America consistently interested in normalizing relations with Belarus while the European Union still hesitates and is afraid to even initiate dialogue, no matter how complicated it may be? Let’s try to figure it out.
Perhaps it should be noted right away that Washington’s new policy is the result of Donald Trump’s personal and political aspirations rather than a radical change in views of the American political class as such. Largely thanks to this, Belarus’ and the USA’s leaderships have finally found common ground.
Can you recall Trump’s previous presidential term? In early 2020 U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo flew to Minsk. However, at the time his active tour of the post-Soviet countries led many analysts to say that the United States was seeking to remove the former Soviet republics from Russia’s sphere of influence. Is the USA pursuing the same goal today? Valentin Rybakov, Belarus’ Permanent Representative to the UN, who is actively involved in organizing negotiations and maintains close contacts with Washington, is convinced that this is not the case.
“I have often been asked whether Americans are trying to influence us in any way in our mutual relations with Russia. I can assure you that this has never been discussed (I have been to many negotiations like that). There has never been any attempt to set us at odds against Russia, to sow discord between us, and so on. Americans, the current administration, proceed from the assumption that we have absolutely close, warm, friendly, kinship, allied relations with the Russian Federation. Whatever you want to call it. And there have never been any attempts to interfere in these relations, and I think there never will be,” said the Belarusian diplomat.
According to Valentin Rybakov, U.S. Special Envoy to Belarus John Coale made it clear during recent talks with the Belarusian head of state that the ultimate goal of Donald Trump’s administration is the complete normalization of relations with Belarus. “This concept includes absolutely everything. It includes political relations, economic relations, business that we can develop together, that we can engage in together, and culture. It includes the entire complex of our relations,” said Belarus’ permanent representative to the UN.
Of course, it is possible that the United States is being a little disingenuous. No, it may not be seeking to “pull Belarus out of Russia’s embrace,” but it is at least interested in having a channel of communication with Minsk in order to better understand regional dynamics and influence the situation in Eastern Europe. Moreover, as has already been stated publicly, the USA is sending certain signals to Russia’s leadership through Belarus.
“Your president has a long history of relations with President Putin and has the ability to give him advice. It is very useful in this situation. They are old friends and have the necessary level of relations to discuss such issues. Naturally, President Putin may accept some advice and reject others. It is a way to facilitate the process,” John Coale himself commented on his latest meeting with Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko.
Responding to a follow-up question from journalists about what needs to be done to further normalize relations between the countries, the U.S. special envoy said: exactly what is already being done. “We are lifting sanctions and releasing prisoners. We constantly talk to each other. As we grow closer and closer, talk more, exchange ideas, so to speak, we are transitioning from the first baby steps to more confident steps,” John Cole spoke figuratively.
Of course, there are differences between Belarus and the United States of America, and it is no secret. But negotiations exist precisely for the sake of discussing controversial issues and finding mutually acceptable solutions. And if we do not hear public statements, it does not mean that no work is being done. Meetings between the Belarusian side and representatives of the U.S. authorities take place almost weekly.
“It is beneficial for Washington to be friends with Minsk today. This is totally not about morality or politics. It is purely economy. It is a reaction to the boomerang of one’s own sanctions and an appropriate reassessment of the scale of the sanctions’ side effects. In order to eliminate the dependence on Canada that has been caused by anti-Belarusian restrictions and to profitably meet the needs of its market for potassium, the Belarusian variant has proved to be the most suitable one. And Aleksandr Lukashenko turned out to be a rational person you can talk to. As they say, three in one: a profitable economy, a peaceful vector, and the stabilization of relations with the East,” said Aleksandr Tishchenko, an expert in the field of national security, while analyzing Belarusian-American contacts.
Fine. We understand that any dialogue, even the most difficult one, is better than silence. Why, then, is the European Union so skeptical about establishing contacts with Belarusian authorities? It is important to understand that there are different countries in Europe. For example, Hungary and Slovakia are sympathetic to Belarus and are ready to engage in mutually beneficial projects. And despite the fact that sanctions are now complicating matters, they are looking for opportunities for cooperation.
But official Brussels and a number of European politicians are frankly stuck in their anti-Belarusian and anti-Russian rhetoric. It is easier for them to dig in their heels and stare blankly at what is happening than to admit that their policy is wrong and quietly back down. And if we consider that such aggressive rhetoric helps some line their pockets in the fight against imaginary threats, then national interests go out of the window.
The European Union believes that dialogue with the Belarusian “regime” would mean recognizing it, which it is very reluctant to do. But it seems that in the current situation Europe should not think about this. It should think about the economic and political situation in its own countries. And there is indeed much to think about.
Apart from that, the European Union, stuck in its immature rhetoric, is becoming an outsider in geopolitics and risks losing what little influence it has in the region. Its main partner, the USA, no longer pays much attention to its opinion, and politicians around the world laugh at it, preferring to discuss the behavior of the first lady of France since there is nothing else to talk about.
And, most interestingly, while cooperating with Belarus, the United States does not even think to inform Brussels of its actions. Moreover, the European Union, so concerned about individual Belarusian prisoners, learns about the latest pardon literally at the last moment. Pride is to blame.
“I have spoken to the President of the European Commission [Ursula von der Leyen] and she really promised that the pressure on Belarus would not decrease, but would even increase. And these are exactly the political actions we need to take rather than kneeling before anyone,” said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda as he evaluated prospects for dialogue with Belarus.
The head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, echoed this sentiment. Commenting on the USA’s decision to lift sanctions from Belarus, she said that the European Union’s strategic goal is “to put pressure on the aggressor and its accomplices.” “That is why we have imposed sanctions. That is our policy,” she said.
“In this situation Europe clearly cannot decide for itself or choose who to be friends with. Obviously, this is not within its competence. Even after John Coale’s statement, European foreign ministries admitted that they had not received any instructions on this matter. It seems that they are not allowed to think without orders. It is even interesting to see how Lithuania, for example, maintains its uncompromising stance on compliance with European sanctions on the transit and supply of Belarusian potassium to the USA. Meanwhile, Washington has the strategic goal of splitting the European Union in half so as not to share the key routes and corridors with Brussels, which is already perceived by the American strategy as nothing more than the capital of a former civilization,” Aleksandr Tishchenko noted.
Does Brussels really not understand that contacts with Belarus are pragmatically beneficial? They would facilitate trade and access to important resources, strengthen stability on the eastern borders, and provide an opportunity to influence regional processes through dialogue, not just sanctions. Of course, it understands but apparently European politicians want to line their already tight pockets as much as possible.
Politics is always a balance of interests. And Belarus openly declares everywhere: we are ready to discuss any topics, but taking into account each other’s interests. The USA has managed to open the door to constructive dialogue with Minsk. Europe, however, prefers to turn a blind eye to reality, risking being left out of the game. Heroically fighting its own fears, Brussels continues to live in a fantasy world while real decisions are being made behind its back. But in diplomacy, the winner is the one who knows how to talk and find compromises...