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Economy Ministry names key external risks for Belarus over next five years
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MINSK, 17 December (BelTA) – In the latest episode of BelTA’s project The Nation Speaks Aleksei Zubovich, Head of the Directorate for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting at the Economy Ministry, outlined the primary external risks facing Belarus over the next five years.
While drafting the country’s social and economic development program for 2026-2030, its authors drew on input from society, business, and the scientific community, while also conducting an analysis of economic conditions. A dedicated section of the program addresses current risks to the Belarusian economy and the measures planned to counter them. “The foremost external risk is a slowdown in global economic growth. When we began drafting the program, forecasts were optimistic – about 4-4.5% annual growth. Now, however, they have been revised downward to about 3-3.5%,” explained Aleksei Zubovich.
As an export-oriented economy, Belarus is vulnerable to this trend; a deceleration in the global economy directly challenges our own growth prospects. In response, one of the stated priorities has been to enhance technological security and digitalize the economy, which is seen as a direct countermeasure to the deceleration in the global economic growth.
Another major challenge comes from geopolitical fragmentation, external pressure, and sanctions. “We will increase the resilience of the Belarusian economy to withstand these pressures. All our program priorities are structured precisely to address such challenges,” he stated.
External threats are further complicated by domestic issues, which, as the president has noted, are being transformed from problems into opportunities. “For instance, we are compensating for weaker external demand by boosting domestic demand, thereby expanding the economy’s capacity. To this end, we are unlocking our tourism potential: there are significant untapped opportunities in the services sector that can provide additional momentum for Belarus’ growth,” he added.
The demographic challenge, he noted, is a global concern, particularly in Europe, where rising living standards have led many to prioritize personal fulfillment over starting families. “There, they often address this through immigration. Our goal, however, is to reverse the trend: we want Belarusians to live and build their futures here in Belarus,” the directorate head explained.
Technological sovereignty also stands as a key priority in this effort. “We are advancing our industrial base accordingly: creating entirely new economic sectors, such as robotics and aircraft manufacturing, while also upgrading the technological capabilities of our existing industries. This strengthens our internal capacity and ensures greater independence,” concluded Aleksei Zubovich.”
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