Business news

3 Nov 2025

Belarus’ central bank comments on monetary policy targets

An archive photo

MINSK, 3 November (BelTA) - Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank Andrei Kartun explained how financial stability will be ensured in Belarus, while commenting on the monetary policy targets for 2026 approved today by the head of state, BelTA has learned.

The list of indicators corresponds to the goals for the National Bank and the banking system as a whole, namely, to promote economic growth while maintaining price and financial stability.

Inflation – Under 7%

As Andrei Kartun noted, the National Bank is not abandoning its medium-term goal of 5% annual inflation, although in 2025 it will be somewhat higher, at around 7%. This indicator is influenced by prices for imported goods. For example, prices for cocoa beans and coffee have increased, which has affected the cost of chocolate and confectionery. This explains the price growth in these segments. Domestic producers are forced to react to the situation on global markets. The increase in coffee prices alone contributed about 0.2% to inflation.

“Taking into account the risks that are projected and already visible, we have set the inflation ceiling at 7%,” Andrei Kartun said.

He identified 10 main categories of goods and services that together account for 70-80% of inflation. These include meat and dairy products, utility services, and household and other services. For certain product groups and services, government price regulation applies. Tariffs for some of them, in particular for urban transportation, have remained virtually unchanged for a long time, while costs and, accordingly, subsidies have increased.

“The National Bank sees its task as keeping core inflation (excluding seasonal and regulated factors) at no more than 5%,” Andrei Kartun said.

International Reserves – No Less Than $9.2 Billion

The deputy chairman of the Board of the National Bank noted that the target for international reserves is somewhat conservative. In October of this year, the country updated the historical high as its international reserves increased to the equivalent of $13.284 billion.

“This is primarily influenced by the rise in global gold prices. When the forecast was being prepared, we did not anticipate such dynamics in gold prices, which essentially exceeded the historical maximum. Prices have since retreated somewhat, but nevertheless, we are being very conservative in our estimates. We are not assuming that gold prices will continue to rise rapidly. We are approaching this with caution. If gold prices are maintained, then, of course, our reserves will be significantly higher. Additionally, the prevailing conditions in the foreign exchange market have allowed us to purchase foreign currency and build up reserves,” Andrei Kartun explained.

The National Bank expects a balanced foreign exchange market next year.

“This factor will not affect either the growth or the decline of international reserves. Nevertheless, we see that we have sufficient reserves to smooth out volatility in the foreign exchange market. However, the second most important factor that will affect or could lead to a decrease in reserves compared to the actual level is the government's foreign currency obligations. Next year, we face one of the peak periods for external debt repayments in foreign currency. A decision has been made to refinance less and repay more of the external debt, to allow the economy to 'breathe' more freely,” Andrei Kartun explained.

Payment Systems and Investment Lending

An availability ratio of automated systems of payment market participants to ensure settlement operations - not less than 99.8%. The higher this indicator is, the more reliably and seamlessly the systems processing payments operate. For the average person, this means that payments will be processed faster and with a lower likelihood of failures.

“Achieving 100% is practically impossible. Systems are constantly being updated, requiring technological routine breaks. Overall, the parameters are quite stringent for market participants. The main thing for the consumer is that they do not notice the technical changes,” Andrei Kartun explained.

Another indicator is the growth in the volume of investment funding, which should be no less than 13% in 2026.

“We have incorporated the growth rate of investment lending into the key parameters. We have set a target of no less than 13%, based on the directives outlined by the head of state for the central bank and the government. Investment lending is one of the drivers of economic growth,” Andrei Kartun said.

Stability of the Banking System and Support for Domestic Producers

The share of non-performing bank assets in assets exposed to credit risk should not exceed 10%. Maintaining this level will ensure the stability of the entire banking system.

“This is essentially the percentage of overdue loans,” Andrei Kartun explained. "The internationally recognized threshold is 10%. In the event of risks, banks should not exceed this level."

In some banks, the share of non-performing assets is lower. The National Bank based its decision on the premise that 10% is an optimal indicator for banks. There is no need to tighten requirements further.

The 2026 monetary policy guidelines, including interest rates, will be published on the National Bank's website. Speaking about interest rates, Andrei Kartun stated that there are no plans to raise them. Interest rates will remain within their current ranges. If necessary, additional measures will be taken to ensure the availability of investment lending.

Lending for domestically produced goods will continue, with its share expected to double in the medium term. “All banks have specific programs to support domestic producers. These will be further expanded. The lending terms are significantly more favorable compared to others,” Andrei Kartun added.



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