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Belarus’ 2026 development targets described as realistic, fully achievable
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MINSK, 3 November (BelTA) - The key forecast targets for the country's development in 2026, approved by the head of state, are realistic and fully achievable, economic expert, head of the Aksios educational center of Giprosvyaz Yuliya Abukhovich told BelTA.
“The development targets are not based on accelerated growth. This is logical given the the country’s current economic dynamics (the post-2022 recovery and the compensatory aspects of replacing lost markets and suppliers) along with the dissipating ‘low base’ effect. Moreover, compared to previous years, the next year’s targets are more moderate, which indicates a professional and responsible assessment by the state leadership of the real capabilities of the Belarusian economy under the current conditions,” Yuliya Abukhovich noted.
According to her, the projected targets for the current year were quite ambitious. She believes that the forecast indicators for 2026 represent a kind of correction to the ambitious plans for 2025.
Thus, GDP growth in 2026 is projected at 2.8%, which is somewhat lower than the targets for 2024 (3.8%) and 2025 (4.1%). Against the backdrop of the actual low GDP growth in 2025 (1.6% in January-September), this figure appears more achievable, and could even be exceeded if foreign trade conditions improve, the economist believes.
"The projected export growth (3.7%) is also lower than for this year (5.4%), which aligns with more cautious estimates. The continued search for new sales markets (geographically remote countries) and the restoration of positions in traditional CIS markets will not only allow for an increase in physical volumes in traditional markets but will also prevent the washout of national income in the pursuit of export revenue," Yuliya Abukhovich affirmed.
The target for real household income growth (4.8%) is higher than in 2025 (4%), which has traditionally been a priority but requires corresponding economic growth, she believes. Investment growth (3.1%) is lower compared to the 2025 forecast growth (7.8%). “This is a normal correction following the rapid growth of the current year (the projected target has currently been exceeded by twofold) and may indicate a transition to more qualitative and selective financing of investment projects,” the expert noted.
The inflation cap in 2026 at 7% (5% in 2025) reflects an acknowledgment of higher inflationary risks, which also adds realism from the perspective of macroeconomic policy, the economist said.
"Thus, the forecast targets for 2026 appear moderately ambitious, balanced, and realistic, taking into account the actual dynamics of 2025. At the same time, they still require vigorous efforts towards rebuilding exports and improving investment efficiency to overcome the current trend of slowing growth observed in our economy and to prepare for new challenges continuously arising in the modern politically and economically turbulent world," Yuliya Abukhovich summarized.
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